An absolute majority or no clear majority for the far right in the Assemblée Nationale: These seem to be the two most likely scenarios for the outcome of the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, July 7, given the number of candidates maintained by each camp. In both cases, France would find itself in a configuration never before seen in the Fifth Republic. What are the next steps expected in the wake of the election? Could the country be heading for an institutional deadlock? Le Monde has some answers.

1. When should a new government be appointed?

The defeat of the presidential camp seems inescapable: an absolute majority of seats is out of reach for Macron’s Ensemble coalition, as it will not be able to maintain a sufficient number of candidates in the second round of parliamentary elections. However, this prospect does not mean that Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will have to resign immediately. “The fact that a government resigns after the parliamentary elections is a convention,” noted Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas.

There is therefore no formal timetable for Macron to ask the current government to resign or to appoint a new one. On the other hand, the president cannot completely ignore the new political situation resulting from the elections. A government outvoted in the Assemblée Nationale is indeed exposed to a motion of no confidence, which could be introduced at the first session of the future Assemblée. Article 12 of the Constitution sets that date as the second Thursday after the election, in this case July 18.

2. How can a new government be formed?

If one political camp has an absolute majority in the Assemblée (at least 289 out of the 577 seats), the appointment of a prime minister from its ranks is unavoidable. Given the results of the first round of voting, such a majority could only emerge from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies, or from the left.

In such a situation of cohabitation, when the president and the prime minister are from different political camps, the power to appoint the prime minister still lies with the president, but he cannot override the opinion of the majority in Assemblée, because a government going against the majority could be the subject of a motion of no confidence. Therefore he must choose a candidate from the majority. This is how François Mitterrand, in 1986 and 1993, and Jacques Chirac, in 1997, appointed prime ministers who were politically opposed to them.

3. What happens if there is no absolute majority?

The matter becomes more complicated if no political camp can muster an absolute majority. In 2022, Macron’s coalition won 246 seats, making it by far the largest group in the Assemblée Nationale, but placing it in a position of relative majority. This complicated situation did not prevent him from forming a government and keeping it in place for two years, as the oppositions on the right, left and far right never joined forces to topple him.

On the other hand, if the far right becomes the largest group in the Assemblée, but fails to win an absolute majority, it could find itself facing a “republican front” majority, capable of toppling its government at any time.

RN leader Jordan Bardella has already anticipated this: He has repeatedly stated since June 9 that he would refuse to be prime minister if his party did not win an absolute majority of seats.

4. What happens if no sustainable government emerges?

In the absence of a clear majority, there is a real risk of institutional deadlock. The Constitution does not impose any timetable for forming a government, but no legislative or regulatory text can be adopted in the absence of one.

In recent days, politicians have put forward several ideas to remedy such a continuation of the crisis:

• the formation of a “government of national unity” supported by a coalition that unites across political camps;
• the appointment of a “technical” government to manage the country, with ministers with no party affiliation, along the lines of the one led by Mario Draghi in Italy from 2021 to 2022;
• a minority government in the Assemblée, but one that would seek compromises to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis.

One thing is certain: in the absence of a clear, stable majority, a government of this type would live under the threat of a vote of no confidence in the Assemblée Nationale, which could lead to a rapid succession of governments.

5. Will there be a new dissolution soon?

According to Article 12 of the Constitution, “no new dissolution may be carried out within one year of these elections.” The future Assemblée Nationale should therefore remain in session until at least the summer of 2025.