NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) — Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has declared a state of emergency for parts of the state affected by Tropical Storm Beryl.

The storm made landfall in Texas on July 8, and its impact spread into western Louisiana, causing damage and one storm-related death.

Days before landfall, the state climatologist working with the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) said Beryl would not be a threat to Louisiana. That message might have been premature.

The statements were made July 3, when Beryl was a Category 4 hurricane moving through the Caribbean. That was the same day Gov. Landry introduced Jay Grymes as the State Climatologist, who would be working directly with GOHSEP. During a news conference, the governor reiterated the important role Grymes would play in the state’s response to major weather events.

“The introduction of a state climatologist directly with GOHSEP only strengthens our ability to make Louisiana residents more prepared and giving them more information as quickly as possible when natural disasters threaten the state of Louisiana,” Landry said.

At the same news conference, Grymes was asked to give an update on the track and projected impact of Beryl. When Grymes spoke at the news conference, the models of Beryl from the National Hurricane Center did not have Louisiana in the storm’s “cone of uncertainty.”

“Beryl is going to get into the Gulf of Mexico, and I know that has a lot of people in Louisiana alerted,” Grymes said. “I want them to take the alarm and turn it off. This is not going to be a threat for Louisiana, but this is going to be a very active season. In fact, many of the experts say a hyperactive season. So, don’t use up your energy with this storm, which is almost certainly not going to affect Louisiana.”

In the days that followed, parts of western Louisiana fell within the cone of uncertainty. On July 8, as Tropical Storm Beryl moved further up Louisiana, the messaging from GOHSEP’s account on X took on a more serious tone. One its posted messages was a repost of the Louisiana’s Department of Health’s confirmation that Beryl caused one death in Bossier Parish.

Fox 8 asked the governor’s office if the statements by GOHSEP’s climatologist were premature, but has not received a response. Predicting where a storm might go and what it might do can be difficult, but that’s precisely why forecasters constantly tell us to stay alert.

“The hard part of our job is that it’s about 5 percent forecasting and 95 percent communication,” Fox 8 meteorologist Zack Fradella said. “Everybody hears things differently. Everybody sees things differently. And everybody has different thresholds for what they worry about and what they’re not worried about.

“From a hurricane perspective, these storms change on a normal basis. And until that storm has hit land — has made landfall — we’re not going to turn our back on it. We’re going to continue to monitor it.”

Fradella said that considering how quickly storms can develop and strengthen, it is better to err on the side of caution in forecasts.

“One of the biggest issues we have from a communication perspective is everyone is so fixated on that cone and the center point of the cone. You have to understand these storms. They can impact you, with far-reaching impacts and far outside of that cone of uncertainty,” Fradella said.

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