The climate opportunity for the new UK government

Labour had set out a range of key climate policies in its election manifesto, that – if implemented – would send a positive signal that the UK can – and is – acting to address the climate crisis.

The first is to achieve clean power by 2030: this would align emissions with the CAT benchmarks for the UK of 96-98% clean power by 2030. It will take a herculean effort, but is absolutely achievable and likely lead to lower electricity bills across the UK. It would also send a strong message to the international community: that a fossil-free power sector is achievable. Achieving this target could accelerate the race to clean power in other countries.

However, emissions from the power sector only made up 14% of UK emissions in 2023, while transport and buildings represented 28% and 20% respectively. Action is urgently needed in these sectors as well.

Labour aims to double investment into energy efficiency in buildings: this is crucial, but the government needs to ensure the funds go to those who need it most, to those experiencing fuel poverty. This is an essential part of a just transition framework for the country.

Prime Minister Starmer would be wise to reconsider his promise to revoke the ban on new gas boilers. Credible long-term bans on fossil fuel technologies can – and have been – very useful in setting out a clear direction of travel for a sector, and should not be scrapped.

On transport, the reinstatement of 2030 as the end date for sales of new petrol and diesel cars would be welcome. But it remains unclear as to how the government will achieve a zero-emissions transport sector, as it still lacks detailed plans for public transport, a clear commitment to halt airport expansion and more.

One major challenge in the transport sector is aviation. The previous administration’s’ “Jet Zero” aviation emissions strategy will see continued growth in the aviation sector, with airport expansion planned across the country, despite clear recommendations from the Climate Change Committee to the contrary.

This policy is heavily reliant on offsets to compensate for fossil fuel emissions, and on the (currently very small and expensive) supply of sustainable aviation fuels. To allow aviation emissions to continue increasing by the projected 70% between 2021 and 2050 and just offset them is a deeply flawed strategy. There has been no indication yet from either Starmer or Miliband that they plan to deviate from this policy. [See our UK country analysis of the aviation sector for more details].

Another key Labour policy is to stop new oil and gas investments in the North Sea. This aligns with the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario that states there can be no new investment in fossil fuel exploration or production if we are to limit warming to 1.5ºC. However, Labour has missed an opportunity to cancel oil fields which have already received approval, but are still in the project development phase, such as the enormous Rosebank oil field. This is a carbon bomb that could, and should, be avoided.

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Labour had set out a range of key climate policies in its election manifesto, that – if implemented – would send a positive signal that the UK can – and is – acting to address the climate crisis. The first is to achieve clean power by 2030: this would align emissions with the CAT benchmarks …

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